Overall Objective

With new uncertainties & challenges emerging in the Indian Natural Gas market,  it is the right time for the Gas Buyers, Gas Sellers, Gas Pipeline Infrastructure Companies, RLNG Terminal Companies, E&P Companies, Investment Agencies, etc to get a reassessment done for the Indian Gas Market, to understand the upcoming & future trends in the Indian Gas Market

The key objective of this Multi-Client Study is to provide the most authentic and segment-wise & region-wise RLNG market outlook, based on a regional & consumer segment-wise bottom-up analysis and forecasting. The analysis will also take into account the various regulatory & policy parameters and economic aspects applicable on the various gas consumer segments

 Key Questions Addressed 

  • What are the consumer segment-wise demand clusters and anchor demand centers of Natural Gas in different regions in India?
  • What is the present and future trend in potential natural gas demand universe, consumer segment-wise and region-wise?
  • What is the gas infrastructure requirement (RLNG Terminal and Gas Pipeline) to penetrate additional and future natural gas markets?
  • What is the consumer segment-wise financial position and appetite for LNG in India?
  • What are the different scenarios in which the major natural gas demand drivers have an appetite for LNG?
  • And many more answers that will address the future opportunities and growth centers of LNG in India.
  • Executive Summary
  • Background

Ø  Historic domestic natural gas production trend

Ø  Historic natural gas consumption trend

Ø  Outlining the demand drivers for Natural Gas in India

Ø  Outlook on domestic natural gas utilization/supply priority, and how it has evolved during highly constrained domestic gas supplies

Ø  Region-wise domestic & LNG natural gas supply sources

Ø  Overall natural gas domestic gas supply scenario and demand curve  for the next 10-15 years timeframe

Ø  Region-wise natural gas pipelines: routes, supply source, key consumers, technical configuration

Ø  Identification of gaps in gas pipeline infrastructure in key potential gas markets

Ø  Gas pipeline tariffs for the gas pipelines

  • Selection of potential natural gas markets in India: Pre-qualification of Regions and States

Ø  Segmentation of natural gas markets based on regions by segregating key states, say:

§  Northern Region

§  Western Region

§  Central Region

§  East and North-Eastern Region

§  Southern Region

Ø  Mapping of connectivity/proximity of the identified regions to the domestic and imported gas supply sources

Ø  Mapping of natural gas pipeline infrastructure growth & development in the identified regions and possibility of future pipeline expansion and addition based on market information

Ø  High-level economic growth assessment in the identified regions to take into account future energy requirement based on economic growth

Ø  Understanding of key natural gas demand drivers in the identified regions, based on historic gas consumption profile and future demand development outlook

Ø  Selection of promising regions/cluster of states that are likely to contribute significantly in the overall growth in Natural Gas demand in future on the basis of matrix developed on the basis of the above parameters

  • Detailed and extensive Natural Gas demand assessment and development of demand model for the qualified regions/cluster of states

Ø  Mapping of Power, Fertilizers, Refinery, LPG extraction, Industrial clusters, SEZ’s, CGD for the qualified regions, state-wise basis: Name of units, current capacity, gas off-take/potential gas demand;

Ø  Bottom-up assessment of Natural Gas demand universe, Region-wise and Consumer-Segment wise to assess the current and up-coming natural gas demand potential

Ø  Existing Gas Allocation to Power, Fertilizer, Refinery, CGD, etc

Ø  Potential demand for Natural Gas based on existing and upcoming capacity and alternate fuel sales for different gas consumers, say: Power, Fertilizer, Refinery, CGD, Industrial clusters, SEZ’s, etc

Ø  Potential demand of natural gas based on state-wise and fuel-wise sales by different oil marketing companies

Ø  Information on expansion and new capacity addition plans for the key natural gas demand segments and assessment of potential gas demand for each of the qualified regions/states

§  Upcoming capacity as per actual plans by the respective companies for the key natural gas consumption segments, such as: Power, Fertilizer, Refinery, CGD, Industry,  etc

§  Capacity additions as planned by the Planning Commission in the XII Plan Period  (FY17)mand as estimated for the XIII Plan period (FY22)

§  Assessment of natural gas demand universe based on the respective conversion assumptions

Ø  Development of a detailed demand model and bottom-up natural gas demand outlook with the following layers

§  Consumer segment wise natural gas demand

§  Current Natural Gas Demand Universe, on a bottom-up study basis

§  Foreseeable Future (say, Upto 2020) for Natural Gas Demand Universe. Based on actual capacity enhancement plans and government projections

§  Non-Foreseeable Future (beyond 2020 and upto 2025) for Natural Gas Demand Universe. Based on industry projections and relevant assumptions

§  Region-wise/State-wise natural gas demand, with timing of such demand on the basis of

§  Current Scenario

§  Upcoming/Foreseeable Future Scenario

§  Non-Foreseeable Future Scenario

  • Assessment of Natural Gas supply scenario for the current, medium to long term scenario

Ø  Identification and mapping of key natural gas supply sources in India

Ø  Assessment of position of the various key supply sources to contribute to the future gas supplies, highlighting: Naturally declining/depleting, Upcoming with future supply potential, technically challenging supply sources, etc

Ø  Development of supply scenarios for future possible natural gas supplies,

§  Scenario I: based on the current gas supply scenario with modest rise in gas supply scenario, termed as Business-As-Usual (Realistic Scenario)

§  Scenario II: based on any significant break-through in the natural gas market that would ramp-up the domestic gas supplies (Optimistic Scenario)

Ø  Summary of current and future natural gas supply scenarios to give a clear idea on how domestic gas supply will possibly behave vis-à-vis demand

  • Strategic demand-supply gap assessment based on Ch. 4 and Ch. 5 of the ToC

Ø  Assessment of pan India natural gas demand and supply scenario, and review of the existing and evolving D-S Gap. Understanding the factors impacting the demand and supply scenario

Ø  Assessment of consumer segment-wise pan India natural gas demand and supply assessment, based on the learning's from the Gas utilization policy and actual gas supply as directed by the government

Ø  The exercise will clearly identify the consumer segment-wise gas supply shortfalls in the current and future (foreseeable and non-foreseeable future)

Ø  The exercise will outline the potential LNG demand universe or annual LNG imports universe for each of the consumer segments in the current and future (foreseeable and non-foreseeable future)

Ø  Assessment of region-wise and consumer segment-wise natural gas demand and supply scenario. The exercise will outline the following

Ø  Region wise Natural Gas demand-supply shortfalls and potential annual LNG requirement

Ø  Region wise analysis of key gas deficit consumer segments and their potential annual LNG requirement

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